Back to school consumer outlooks

Article | July 16, 2024

Authored by Weinlander Fitzhugh

The back-to-school season is a critical period for retailers, second only to the holiday shopping frenzy in terms of sales volume. For sectors like electronics, office supplies, food, and clothing, this time of year provides a significant boost in revenue. 

However, retailers face a more challenging market environment. Growth in back-to-school sales is slowing, particularly for college-bound students, and the expansion rate for physical retail stores is plateauing. Yet, this season remains a valuable indicator of consumer behavior leading into the holiday shopping period. By aligning strategies with current consumer trends, retailers can maximize their profit margins during this key shopping season. 

Current consumer trends

While back-to-school retail sales in the U.S. are projected to grow modestly (around 3.2%), this growth rate is slightly less than we have seen in recent years. At the same time, 47% of consumers expect to spend more money while back-to-school shopping. Families with K-12 students are projected to spend an average of $890, primarily driven by rising prices and a higher demand for electronics. College students will also see an increase in spending, with families expected to spend around $1,367 per student. This rise is attributed to the need for big-ticket items like electronics and dorm furnishings. 

A significant portion of back-to-school shopping in the U.S. occurs in late July and early August, with 43% of adults beginning their purchases during this period. An additional 10% continue their shopping into late August and early September. This extended shopping window highlights the importance of retailers maintaining inventory and promotional efforts throughout the summer months. 

Shifts in spending

Many consumers are more price-conscious, with 51% planning to buy generic or less expensive brands of supplies. Plus, many are employing cost-saving strategies – seeking out sales, using coupons, and buying fewer new clothes. 

It’s worth noting that there are also regional differences in spending. Families in the Western U.S. are expected to spend the most on back-to-school items, averaging $959 per household, while those in the Midwest are projected to spend the least, averaging $679 per household. 

Factors influencing consumer behavior

Economic factors

Many Americans are still concerned about inflation and a potential recession, both of which influence consumer behavior. Over the past two years, the prices of school supplies have increased by nearly 24%. As a result, consumers are becoming more price sensitive, reassessing their budgets, and prioritizing essential items like school supplies over nonessential purchases such as clothing. Reduced disposable income has prompted many to opt for generic brands, reuse old supplies, and shop earlier to find the best deals. 

Changes in schooling models

Changes in schooling, such as the shift toward hybrid learning models and homeschooling, are also changing consumer purchasing patterns. Many school districts are adopting year-round schedules to combat summer learning loss, influencing when and what parents buy. This has led to a growing demand for electronics and home office supplies as parents invest in technology to support their children’s education from home. 

Technological advances

Advancements in technology are also shaping consumer preferences and expectations. The increasing use of electronic products in education, supported by the adoption of technology-enhanced learning in smart classrooms, is expected to continue. This trend reduces the demand for traditional stationery supplies. 

The convenience of online shopping is also growing, with many parents using apps to compare prices and find deals. Social media platforms also play a crucial role in influencing purchase decisions by showcasing products and promotions. This shift is causing many consumers to reevaluate their brand loyalty, often switching brands based on recommendations from influencers and the ability to find better deals online. 

Digital integration and AI in retail

Consumers are increasingly testing the capabilities of AI and expect brands to do the same to create optimized and personalized customer experiences. Retailers that integrate advanced digital tools into their operations are seeing increased consumer interest. AI can help retailers personalize customer interactions, enhance the shopping experience, and cater to the growing demand for seamless online and offline shopping experiences. 

Strategies to align with consumer trends

Stock the right products

To capitalize on consumer trends, retailers should prioritize products that align with current demands. This includes laptops, tablets, and tech accessories like chargers, headphones, and earbuds, which are increasingly essential. Additionally, there is a growing market for home office furniture, such as desks, chairs, and organizational tools, as more students study from home. 

The back-to-school season also boosts sales in the food and beverage industry, with parents stocking up on snacks, lunchbox items, and convenience foods. Health and safety supplies, like hand sanitizer, also remain in demand. Surprisingly, the automotive industry also sees increased activity as families prepare for the school year, including new vehicle purchases and maintenance services to ensure reliable transportation for school commutes.

One effective strategy to increase sales during this season is product bundling. Create bundles of essential school supplies or home office items, offering a discount to appeal to budget-conscious shoppers. For example, bundling books on the reading list or necessary supplies for each grade can help customers save money and improve their perception of your store. This approach not only enhances value for customers but also allows you to market multiple products at once. 

Marketing and promotions

Strategic promotions throughout the summer can maximize consumer engagement. Consider collaborating with local bloggers and influencers to cover back-to-school discounts to expand your reach and build stronger brand awareness. Use a mix of digital marketing channels and encourage followers to create user-generated content to further enhance your visibility. 

Experiment with pricing strategies in select markets to identify the most effective approaches. Promoting private-label products, perceived as high-quality yet affordable alternatives, can attract price-sensitive shoppers. Creating a sense of urgency with pre-sale and flash deals can also excite consumers and drive sales. 

Implementing loyalty programs, such as student and teacher discounts, can build long-term customer relationships and increase lifetime value. Offering discounts on classroom materials and teaching resources acknowledges the role of teachers and expands the target audience beyond parents and students. 

Running giveaways and contests on social media can also boost brand engagement and increase followers. These activities not only enhance exposure but also gather valuable data and subscribers. 

Highlight sustainable practices

Despite economic pressures, many consumers still value eco-friendly products. Retailers can attract this segment by emphasizing sustainable practices and products. Initiatives like resale collections, repair services, and using recycled materials in new products can appeal to environmentally conscious consumers and differentiate the brand. Highlighting these practices can build brand loyalty and attract a dedicated customer base. 

Leverage AI and content to enhance loyalty

Using data analytics to personalize consumer interactions significantly boosts customer loyalty. Retailers should use AI to analyze shopping habits and preferences, providing tailored recommendations and personalized offers. Developing sophisticated loyalty programs that go beyond basic points and cashback to offer personalized rewards can help retain customers and foster long-term loyalty. 

Your back-to-school strategy should also focus on nurturing potential leads. Providing value to consumers through engaging content like productivity tips, shopping lists, or first-day outfit ideas can strengthen your connection with your audience. 

Next steps for your business

This article provides a brief overview of key trends and strategies for the back-to-school season aimed at helping businesses maximize profitability. For more personalized guidance and comprehensive business financial planning, please contact our office. We offer tailored services to meet your specific needs and ensure your business thrives.